Two political waves swept aside the Conservatives to change county council makeup
Late Sunday evening politics for you as these elections punished the Conservatives and Labour in Gloucestershire
On a calm Sunday evening after the results of a redrawn political landscape for Gloucestershire, it is true that local elections are always meant to cover local issues, but overall national polls played their inevitable part in how voters think and feel.
Gloucestershire County Council’s political complexion has changed as the Liberal Democrats became the largest party but did fall short by one seat to gain overall control. The Conservatives, who won 28 seats the last time county council had elections four years ago, have been swept aside winning six seats.
Reform UK secured 11 seats to become the largest opposition party and the Greens did pick up seats from the Conservatives and Labour. After the general election of a year ago saw Labour gain Gloucester, Forest of Dean and Stroud - at county council level they now only have one councillor.
The Lib Dems say their message of delivering change has resonated with the electorate, but what do the results tell us?
A Lib Dem surge in areas you would expect
A lot of attention is placed on Reform UK but for the Liberal Democrats to gain 12 seats more than in 2021 does mean they are the largest party.
The responsibility they have now is to deliver. Resurfacing roads, filling in potholes, helping to solve the crisis in SEND education, introducing 20mph zones where communities want them - these are issues voters told me they care about.
Gaining seats in Cheltenham was always the party’s biggest goal and they did so defeating every remaining Conservative councillor. In Gloucester the Lib Dems gained crucial seats such as Hempsted & Westgate and Longlevens, and in the Forest of Dean and Stroud the party held onto Newent and Wotton-Under-Edge.
After gaining Tewkesbury at the general election, their momentum continued by taking seats seats such as Tewkesbury East, Severn Vale, Highnam and Winchcombe & Woodmancote all at the expense of the Tories.
In the Cotswolds, gaining Tetbury was a significant pointer. The only reason the Lib Dems are not quite the largest party are a few misses, seats such as Fairford & Lechlade and Moreton, Stow & The Rissingtons - there will be slight disappointment.
Holding seats and gaining seats primarily from the Conservatives are why Ed Davey’s party now find themselves in a position of power at Shire Hall. The party now has a responsibility to oversee a new unitary authority, but that is another conversation for another day.
The new leader of the council Lisa Spivey described the results as “thrilling” because “our message of change resonated. It would have been nice to have the majority but have enough alignment to deliver our pledges to voters and there is common ground between the Greens and Steve Robinson as the sole Labour councillor left.”
“Our focus is delivering for residents and we want to work with all councillors to deliver for residents and we're not interested political games. We are ready for the challenge. There has been 20 years of Conservative rule and decisions they've made we will be trying to unpick.”
The Lib Dems are in charge now, there is nobody else to blame now if the new administration does not deliver, a challenge Lisa recognises.
“I'm going to be honest and transparent to voters that things will take time, but delivering for residents is our biggest priority. Fixing things overnight won't happen and our biggest focus is Gloucestershire's roads and getting good value for money for our residents.”
Reform UK have annihilated the Conservatives more than Labour
The national picture does show that Nigel Farage’s party are posing a major challenge to the traditional two party dominance of British politics, a broad picture which was made stark in Gloucestershire.
Winning Grange & Kingsway, Tuffley & Moreland and Quedgeley from the Conservatives means Gloucester is an area they can claim to have significant support.
They can also point to victories in Cam Valley and Stonehouse, as well as gaining Tewkesbury West from the Greens to see former Conservative Vernon Smith elected. The Forest of Dean is where Reform UK performed the strongest - four seats won from the Tories in places such as Coleford and beating Labour in Cinderford.
Reform have mainly taken votes from the Conservatives and now have signifcant numbers at Shire Hall - 11 in total to become the main opposition party. What is also crucial to point out is Reform coming second in many council seats, including some areas of Cheltenham, not enough to win but a sign that they did perform exceptionally well in terms of votes.
Yes they did take votes from Labour if you take the Cinderford result into context but if you look at other parts of the county, Reform votes taking away from Conservative totals - it did mean a loss of seats for the Tories.
Ray Donaghue, as the newly elected Reform UK councillor for Cinderford, said “we feel ecstatic , humbled and there is some surprise.”
Gaining five of the seven Forest of Dean seats on offer, Ray says “lots of us are normal people who have never done this before but on the doorstep we heard frustration. In Cinderford I heard people caring about local issues, national issues and just fed up with the main parties. This is just the start and the first step for Reform. Foresters just want things managed properly and we heard concerns about anti-social behaviour, housing and migration.”
Ray adds: “We are new councillors and we have some very capable councillors. People on the doorstep wanted action and we heard people in the Forest saying they want change for their roads and their towns.”
Ex-Conservative councillor Vernon Smith elected in Tewkesbury West said “it is sad” some of his former colleagues lost their seats, “but times have changed and people do feel let down by the Conservatives, as do I.”
He adds he’s “amazed” to win because the Tewkesbury branch of Reform UK was started very quickly. “I would like to thank the people of Tewkesbury for electing me. They told me it is time to go back to basics, be more efficient and to stop the virtue signalling.”
A strong Green result attached with some disappointment
Across the Stroud District the Greens made gains at the expense of Labour, namely Stroud Central, Dursley and defeating Labour group leader John Bloxsom in Rodborough by just 12 votes.
Bisley & Painswick was also a crucial gain from the Conservatives whilst the party held its ground in seats such as Minchinhampton and Haresfield & Upton St Leonards.
In Cheltenham, the Greens won Prestbury & Swindon Village to be the only party apart from the Lib Dems to represent the town at Shire Hall. Elsewhere the Greens held seats such as Blakeney & Bream and Sedbury in the Forest, but the only disappointments they will have is the loss of Tewkesbury West to Reform UK and unable to win Stonehouse in a tight 21 vote margin also to Reform.
The Lib Dems not gaining overall control does mean the Greens could be in a significant position to work together.
Re-elected councillor for Minchinhampton Chloe Turner said: “we are absolutely delighted and I’m delighted to have more Green colleagues around me. We exceeded our seat target and there was frustration on the doorstep with both main parties. We heard real concern about climate, nature and social justice issues.”
On the political makeup and the Green maybe having influece with a new minority Lib Dem administration, Chloe said: “There will be a strong desire to get things done. There will be discussions between groups but clearly we share a lot of common ground with the Lib Dems to represent our communities. Everything is very early to say and even if the Lib Dems go it alone there is still common ground for working together on solving issues.”
Conservative rule of Shire Hall comes to an end
After 20 years of being in control of Gloucestershire County Council the Conservatives face not total oblivion but a bruising defeat.
The Tories lost votes in all key areas of the county where their four remaining Cheltenham councillors were wiped out and the same happened for their representation across Tewkesbury and the Forest of Dean.
Group leader and now former council leader Stephen Davies held his Hardwicke & Severn seat but did see colleague Lindsey Green unable to win Cam Valley again for the Tories, Reform UK won by 366 votes.
Numerous members of the Tory-run cabinet lost their seats and in Lydney, Alan Preest, who has represented the division since 2013, was beaten into third.
Some small crumbs of comfort did see Highways cabinet member Dom Morris hold off the Lib Dems in Fairford & Lechlade, Daryl Corps won Moreton, Stow & The Rissingtons and in Gloucester, Sajid Patel and Andrew Gravells held onto Barton & Tredworth and Abbey divisions.
Overall though a miserable night for the Conservatives, who still have a group of experienced councillors but heavily reduced from what they had previously. There was a time when Gloucestershire was true blue territory, now it remains unclear how the Conservatives win parts of the county back.
“It is very disappointing and you cannot deny the electorate wanted an opportunity to change, Stephen Davies said. There are going to be some interesting challenges ahead and I feel that national issues have created a protest vote.”
“This is democracy and people were frustrated. As a local county councillor I am disappointed that a national wave has caused good councillors to lose their seats but that is democracy.”
Rob Garnham, chair of Cheltenham Conservatives said: "It's very disappointing for our hard working Cheltenham councillors. We have to lead ourselves back and we really need to campaign on issues Cheltenham residents care about. We have to show what we stand for and I understand that is going to be extremely difficult. We will continue to hold the Lib Dems accountable on their pledges and how they run councils.”
What will the Conservatives do now at Shire Hall?
Stephen Davies adds: “Politics is all about maths, nobody has to work with us and our ability to vote anything down is going to be hard. We intend to scrutinise and what will be interesting is the devolution vote. That is where councillors must make a crucial decision.”
Labour have serious thinking to do
It is true that Labour do not have significant support in parts of Gloucestershire such as Cheltenham, Tewkesbury and the Cotswolds, but in areas where they won at the general election, voters have arguably made their judgement on the new Keir Starmer government.
Five councillors in Cinderford, Dursley, Rodborough, Stroud Central and Nailsworth was the number before this election, now only Steve Robinson in Nailsworth remains.
Defeats to the Greens in Stroud is where the party will feel bitter as group leader John Bloxsom lost in Rodborough by just 12 votes and after former MP David Drew resigned his Stroud Central seat, the Greens won by a hefty 1,367 margin.
Cinderford in the Forest of Dean was a loss to Reform and in Gloucester the party was not even close to gaining a single seat.
John said: “It’s been a pleasure and a privilege to be a county councillor for the last four years. It is frustrating to have lost by 12 votes as a result of a local election being used to send a message to national government. It happens, I’ll get over it, I’ll take time to reflect and detox.”
A Gloucestershire Labour Party spokesperson told BBC Gloucestershire: “We're going to keep working to build trust with people across our county while the government goes further and faster in pursuing the change people want to see.”
Gloucester independent “over the moon” to be re-elected
A final result worth mentioning is one independent councillor remains at Shire Hall. Ex-Conservative Alastair Chambers was re-elected to the Coney Hill and Matson seat on 798 votes, a majority of 161 over Reform UK.
“There was a period where there was a big clump of Reform votes so I did think I may not have got this, Alastair said. As soon as I saw more bundles of votes for me, I was relieved.”
“I am over the moon, really happy and it is nice to think the community voted for me as an individual and not a party. Gloucestershire still sways to the right if you add the Tory and Reform votes together. The Lib Dems did keep their core vote, I did not hear a single Gloucester Labour voter and I do have a commitment to people in Gloucester.”
Analysis: There will be intense debates at Shire Hall
Putting aside the fact both Labour and the Conservatives were punished at this election, there is no escaping the fact that this new county council is divided politically.
A significant number of Reform UK councillors, the Greens increasing their numbers and now a sizeable change in the Lib Dems becoming the largest party - there will be differences in opinion on how the county council should be run.
Expect some intense debates, times where there may be common ground and as with any councillor no matter if they hold power or are in opposition - the votes and decisions they make need to be scrutinised.
I take the view that the Lib Dems now have to deliver, the stance other parties take on issues needs holding accountable too - this is after all democracy.
A word also on the turnout - a low turnout is not good for our local democracy. People are sadly not engaged enough in local politics, especially younger generations - something I find troubling. More of the electorate need to be engaged in what a council does, arguably more important than MPs we elect to Westminster.
One thing not in the article is Gloucestershire county council is going to be abolished in 2 year and has with the Districts and Borough Council to come up with a replacement plan for the Councils and a mayoral combined transport Authority and a mayor Like the west of England mayoral combined Authority With mayor Helen Goodwin or another combined Authority.
With south Gloucestershire county council
So this is the end of Gloucestershire county Council south Gloucestershire county council going in 1974 .
Local mp and Transport secretary Hydi Alexander mp made it clear to Mayor Helen Goodwin that Mayoral combined Authority are the way forward and unitary Councils.
Gloucestershire as 2 small unitary Councils are to small
So Deputy Prime minister Angela Ryner mp and Homes and local government secretary will decide the future of Gloucestershire county Council and Devon county council if a local plan with community support not decided.
Very helpful thank you.